Clock Ticking for Brian Kelly as National Analysts Warn LSU HC of Jimbo Fisher’s $76M Fate
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When Brian Kelly left Notre Dame to take over LSU football in 2021, he made headlines not just for the suddenness of the move, but for the ambition behind it. Kelly wasn’t running from something—he was running toward the bright lights of the SEC, toward the recruiting-rich Gulf Coast, and toward the promise of coaching elite athletes on the biggest stage.
Fast forward to 2025, and the tone has shifted.
Kelly’s tenure in Baton Rouge began with flashes of brilliance: a win over Alabama in 2022, an SEC West title, a 10-win season. But since then, cracks have formed. Defensive breakdowns, missed opportunities, and a glaring inability to turn high-end talent into consistent playoff contention have clouded his reputation. Now, as the 2025 season looms, national analysts are sounding the alarm—Kelly’s clock may be ticking. And the specter haunting him isn’t just the pressure to win in the SEC. It’s Jimbo Fisher’s ghost.
Fisher’s $76M Warning Shot
In November 2023, Texas A&M sent shockwaves through college football by firing Jimbo Fisher and swallowing a record-setting $76 million buyout. It was a statement of intent—a declaration that in today’s SEC, high salaries come with high expectations. There is no grace period, no buffer for rebuilding. A big contract buys time only until results flatline.
Fisher had been hailed as a savior when he arrived from Florida State. He brought a national championship pedigree, an aggressive recruiting plan, and a $95 million contract. But despite loading the Aggies with five-star talent, his teams never lived up to the hype. His offenses sputtered, his defenses underachieved, and his bowl record was underwhelming.
By Year 6, A&M fans were fed up. The boosters had the money, and the university had the will to move on.
Now, Kelly finds himself in a similarly precarious spot.
The Contract That Raised Eyebrows
When LSU hired Kelly, they didn’t just bring in a coach with a proven track record—they gave him a deal befitting a national title winner. A 10-year, $100 million contract was unprecedented for someone who hadn’t yet coached in the SEC.
Initially, it seemed like a good bet. Kelly immediately upgraded LSU’s recruiting infrastructure, modernized parts of the program, and brought a sense of discipline after the chaos of the Ed Orgeron era. His first season ended with a thrilling win over Alabama, a 10-4 record, and an SEC Championship Game appearance.
But since then, the Tigers have failed to meet rising expectations. Defensive collapses in big games, an inability to win consistently on the road, and a handful of inexplicable losses have cast doubt on whether Kelly is the long-term answer. His buyout is still significant—$50 million as of 2025—but the Fisher precedent has emboldened boosters and altered the landscape.
Analysts Raise Red Flags
In recent months, several high-profile national analysts have pointed to LSU as a “pressure cooker” job in 2025, with Kelly directly in the crosshairs.
Paul Finebaum, the SEC media heavyweight, noted on his spring recap show:
“There’s a feeling that Brian Kelly is on notice. He came here to win championships—not just games. If he can’t do that in Year 3 or Year 4, then LSU has to ask what they’re really paying for.”
CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodd went even further in a March column:
“LSU took a massive swing when they hired Kelly, but the results are starting to look eerily similar to the Jimbo Fisher era at A&M: good recruiting, average returns, and no real playoff progress.”
Even ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit, typically measured, added a note of caution:
“Kelly has all the tools. But this is LSU. You don’t get seven years to figure it out.”
What’s Gone Wrong?
The criticism isn’t without foundation. For all of Kelly’s organizational prowess and public confidence, his LSU tenure has been marred by several issues:
1. Defensive Inconsistency
LSU’s defense under Matt House (and later replacements) has been wildly erratic. Despite producing NFL talent, the Tigers gave up over 30 points in several key losses across 2023 and 2024. Blowout defeats to Georgia and Ole Miss—games that were supposed to be measuring sticks—ended up exposing serious schematic and execution flaws.
2. Recruiting Shortfalls at Key Positions
While LSU has remained a top-10 recruiting power, Kelly’s classes have underdelivered at certain positions—particularly the secondary and linebacker units. In the SEC, that margin matters. LSU hasn’t had the kind of dominant defensive front or backfield that it boasted in past title runs under Saban or Orgeron.
3. Quarterback Dependence
Jayden Daniels’ Heisman-winning season in 2024 masked deeper flaws. His departure leaves LSU in a precarious position. While Garrett Nussmeier is a promising successor, he lacks experience as a full-season starter. If Nussmeier falters, questions will quickly turn to the staff’s development and depth planning.
4. Big Game Failures
Since that magical 2022 win over Alabama, Kelly is 1–5 against top-10 opponents. His LSU teams have too often come up short in prime-time matchups—an unforgivable sin in a program where national relevance is expected.
Why the Clock is Ticking Now
The SEC in 2025 is not the same conference that Kelly entered in 2022. With Texas and Oklahoma joining the fold, the path to the playoff is more complex, and the conference itself is more brutal. The new 12-team playoff format theoretically offers more opportunities—but only if a team is competitive.
LSU, historically, expects to contend for a title every 3–5 years. With Alabama entering a post-Saban transition, the window seemed open for Kelly to capitalize. Yet Georgia has remained a powerhouse, Ole Miss and Missouri have surged, and upstarts like Tennessee are turning heads. LSU fans are left wondering: if not now, when?
Kelly’s resume at Notre Dame—three playoff appearances, a national title game in 2012—no longer guarantees patience. If anything, it raises the standard even higher. And with the Fisher firing proving that even a nine-figure contract won’t protect underperforming coaches, Kelly’s cushion is thinning.
Can Kelly Save Himself?
The good news for Kelly is that the opportunity to flip the narrative still exists.
LSU’s 2025 schedule is manageable early on, with non-conference games against lesser opponents and a home-heavy first half. If Nussmeier clicks, and the defense improves under new staff additions, the Tigers could open the season 6–1 or better before facing the real gauntlet.
Key swing games include:
- At Texas (October): A marquee matchup with massive playoff implications.
- Versus Alabama (November): The Tide may be rebuilding, but they’re still a measuring stick.
- At Ole Miss (November): Lane Kiffin’s squad has been ascending—LSU can’t afford to fall behind.
If Kelly finishes with 10+ wins and a New Year’s Six bowl victory, the narrative changes entirely. He would buy himself more time and restore confidence within the fanbase and administration.
But anything less—7-5 or 8-4 with another collapse in key games—will pour fuel on the fire.
Boosters and the Business of Winning
LSU is one of the richest programs in college football. The Tigers generated nearly $120 million in athletic revenue last year and have deep-pocketed donors committed to maintaining their national status. Kelly was hired in part because he projected stability. But stability without championships is no longer enough.
The Fisher firing taught boosters that buyouts, no matter how massive, are not deterrents. They are now considered “the cost of doing business.” And while Kelly’s $50 million buyout in 2025 is significant, LSU would likely face minimal pushback from its donor base if the results truly stagnate.
The administration has also changed since Kelly was hired. New athletic leadership, new priorities, and new political dynamics inside the program mean that even a previously safe coach can become vulnerable.
The Legacy Question
There’s also the matter of legacy. Brian Kelly left Notre Dame as the school’s all-time winningest coach but was often criticized for coming up short on the biggest stages. He came to LSU to prove he could win a national title. If that dream fades, his entire career arc could be defined by almosts—not championships.
In many ways, Kelly and Fisher are cautionary tales for each other. Fisher won a title early but couldn’t replicate success elsewhere. Kelly has consistently won, but never reached the summit. Both commanded massive contracts. Both carried expectations of greatness. And both now serve as reminders that in today’s SEC, patience is a luxury no longer afforded to even the most decorated names.
Final Thought: Year 4 or Year Out?
Kelly enters his fourth season in Baton Rouge with both promise and peril. The tools are there—talented quarterbacks, elite receivers, and enough experience to make a playoff run. But the margin for error has vanished.
The Jimbo Fisher saga wasn’t just about one man failing—it was about a system that no longer tolerates mediocrity, no matter the cost. Brian Kelly should heed that warning, because in 2025, success will not be defined by bowl wins or recruiting rankings. It will be defined by playoff appearances and championships.
The clock is ticking. And LSU is listening.
